According to TrendForce's research, despite the peak season effect and DDR5 penetration rate increase, the DRAM market in the third quarter was still unable to compete with the negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and high inflation leading to weak demand for consumer electronics, which in turn led to a rise in overall DRAM inventories and became the main reason for the 3-8% drop in DRAM prices in the third quarter, and we cannot rule out the possibility that some product categories such as PCs and smartphones will experience a drop of more than 8%. Some product categories, such as PC and smartphone, are expected to see a drop of more than 8%.

In terms of PC DRAM, the continued weak demand has triggered PC OEMs to revise their shipment targets for the whole year, and also caused DRAM inventories to soar rapidly. At the same time, since the overall DRAM industry is still in oversupply, even though PC demand is sluggish, it is still difficult for suppliers to reduce their PC DRAM supply, causing the number of supply bits to continue to increase slightly quarterly, so it is estimated that PC DRAM prices will drop 3~8%.

As for Server DRAM, the current client inventory is slightly high at 7~8 weeks, and the server field is currently an important sales market for the original manufacturer, but the client's bit demand is still not enough to fully consume the bit output brought by the increase in chip investment and process evolution. In addition, the uncertainty of demand for PC DRAM and mobile DRAM in the second half of the consumer category has forced the original manufacturers to shift their production capacity to server DRAM, resulting in suppliers having to suppress the price decline through some sales strategies such as price binding in both quarters and increasing on-hand inventory.

Mobile DRAM, due to the end-consumer market sales are still not as expected, forcing the original manufacturer to slightly reduce the proportion of mobile DRAM production quarter by quarter, and shift to server DRAM, in order to stabilize market inventory and prices. However, due to the process shift into the help, mobile DRAM bit supply did not decline significantly, coupled with the average capacity of a single machine and failed to significantly improve, resulting in oversupply continues, the decline will expand to 3 ~ 8% compared to the second quarter. Under the double pressure of revenue and inventory, the price will be released with a greater willingness to concessions, striving to negotiate partial prices and shipments before the end of June to meet the urgent needs. 

Graphics DRAM, as buyers face increased inventory and the uncertainty of subsequent channel demand, the market pulling power is weak. Although Micron has only a sporadic supply of GDDR6 8Gb in the third quarter, the supply of graphics DRAM is not in danger due to the increase in the amount of chips invested by Korean manufacturers and the weakening demand, which has caused the price to drop 0~5% in the third quarter. The key to the price is not easy to rise, but must pay attention to the attitude of the original factory, if the original factory that the third quarter price decline can not stimulate demand, will still try to keep the price flat.

Consumer DRAM, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the epidemic and high inflation and other factors impacting consumer electronics buying, which is consumer DRAM-related applications of notebooks, TV shipments face downward revision, coupled with DDR3 because the price is a relatively high point, the buyer in inventory and cost pressure, the purchase power is obviously convergence, DDR3 and DDR4 demand is expected to decline simultaneously The market pulling power continues to weaken. The Korean factory for the withdrawal of DDR3 supply plans remain unchanged, but the second half of the year, there are still land and Taiwan factory new capacity to open. In the case of weakening demand and increasing supply, the bargaining advantage of the seller is no longer, it is difficult to support the third quarter consumer DRAM prices, DDR3 and DDR4 prices are forecasted to decrease by 3~8% quarterly.