Early June: Chip supply in Europe is improving, with this source sourced from Bloomberg and subsequently reprinted in Europe Autonews and other media outlets, primarily reflecting Daimler Trucks (née Karin Radstrom), Mercedes-Benz (Joerg Burzer), BMW and VW.

● Mid-June: Semiconductor shortages are showing further signs of easing globally, according to the S&P I H S index tracking, based on the S&P Global PMI™ Commodity Price and Supply Indicator, which uses responses collected from the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI survey to track the development of price pressures and supply shortages for more than 20 items 

          ▲Figure 1. Global sales inside LMC's monthly report

Realistically, chips are still on the agenda for subsequent scheduling by Chinese automotive companies, but the automotive semiconductor supply is currently moving in a positive direction, judging from what industry has passed on to the financial press, and the price and ease of buying chips around now.

Some logic of recovery

Now there are more consulting companies that track the chip situation, we take all the information to sort and synthesize for macro judgment, and then you readers can roughly judge the direction.

S&P I H S

There is a lot of information here, including the decline in production in Europe began to slow down, and the decline in auto production in Asia is accelerating. And according to the price index, the supply of chips began to continue to improv         

        ▲Figure 2. Price index and industry index situation

According to the current consumer chips (especially cell phones and tablets), the hoarding logic is broken by the lower global demand, which also makes the consumer chips take the lead from the peak downward. And the global automotive supply and chips, still in the state of lack of core top, and the current car waiting for delivery and supply is still a long time, the conclusion given here is still relatively conservative.

▲Figure 3. A detailed look at the price index for semiconductors

●Credit Benchmark

The problems talked about here, automotive chips are no longer the only problem for global automakers to face, as worker shortages and common parts problems in Europe and the United States are beginning to surface.

▲Figure 4. Current Credit Trend of Automotive and Auto Parts

●AutoForecast Solutions

The U.S. side of the consulting firm, for the global automotive forecast VP Sam Fiorani's attitude is that the shortage of automotive chips is far from over. In the short term, the automotive industry will continue to compete with the more profitable consumer chips for limited fab space, and may not fully recover in 2023. afs in North America specifically to make forecasts, but also out a table of chip production cuts this year.

Asian production cuts are mainly Toyota in May to reduce production by 10% (75,000 units), in June to reduce production by 100,000 units.

▲Figure 5. AFS's tracking of auto production cuts

Cautious Optimism on Auto Chip

After listing the above information, I think it is still difficult to judge the trend of chips, and now the global management of automotive chips is already in a more sensitive state. The previous carrier thing, so that the procurement of automotive chips has not stopped, so the current car companies, Tier1 is still firmly buy chips, involved in the inside arbitrage inverted master began to ebb, which also objectively indicates that the risk of chip supply began to reduce.

And domestic auto car chip procurement, still in the stage of loopholes around, I think this thing ah, mainly because of the original classification of automotive chips, from MCU, power SPC chips, ASIC chips, low-voltage MOSFETs and drivers, due to the overall variety of particularly large, want to get together the burst volume is still relatively difficult. Plus we are concerned about more new energy vehicles, more BMS, Inverter, OBC and DCDC and other chips big, which in turn adds more than fuel cars.

▲Figure 6. The amount of value of automotive chips for electric vehicles

My personal judgment, as we track down the weekly new energy vehicles continue to climb, fuel car consumers because of another plus to park the car at home or buy a second electric car, power semiconductors and BMS sampling chip became the most shortage, and single-chip inside Infineon's power class MCU (multi-core & functional safety) is a shortage of items starting in July. From July, the shortage of chips will shift from the previous universal items to the proprietary components of electric vehicles.